In this article, I provide some analysis on the value of Historic Anthologies I and II, particularly from the perspective of a Non-Historic player who is considering whether or not availing of these bundles now would be a good idea should he or she decide to get into Historic in the future.
Just for some context, the Historic Anthologies are bundles of cards that are sold on the MTGA Store. They consist of cards that are legal to the Historic format (but not Standard). The anthologies are available for a long but ultimately limited amount of time (currently, the store page says that the Historic Anthology 1 offer is ending soon). The cards are of course, still available for crafting via wild cards. As such, wild cards serve as a good benchmark in the valuation of these bundles.
Valuation Process
The proposed valuation process is hinged on the ability to identify which rare/mythic cards in the anthology are likely to be “valuable.” Commons and uncommons are not included in the valuation as it is assumed that everyone has an abundance of common/uncommon wild cards. “Valuable” here is a complex concept because what is valuable to me may not be valuable to you. Thus, for purposes of the following valuations, I will fix the definition of value as the extent to which the card is likely to see play in the competitive Historic meta. This number can thus range from 0 to 1, where 1 means the card will definitely see play in some of the best decks in the meta and 0 means that the card will not see play at all. Given this, we are now ready to examine the value of Historic Anthologies I and II.
Valuation of Historic Anthology I
Anthology I has 8 rares and 1 mythic rare. Among them, I think the following are the ones that will definitely see competitive play as 4-ofs in Historic.
Phyrexian Arena
Fauna Shaman
Hyponotic Spectre
Cryptbreaker
Among the remaining cards, I think the following can see some competitive play but are not powerful enough to be included in the first pile.
Captain Sisay 0.3, 2
Kinsbaile Cavalier 0.1, 4
Hidetsugu’s Last Rite 0.1, 2
Darksteel Reactor 0.3, 3
Serra Ascendant 0.2, 4
Thus, I think all the cards in Anthology I can possibly see play in the Historic competitive meta, but the 4 cards in the first group are definitely powerful enough that they will show up at some point. I assigned two numbers next to each card in the second group. The first number indicates what I believe is the chance that they would actually become staples of the Historic meta. The second is the number of copies of the card that would likely need to be played if it does become a staple. These numbers are quite arbitrary, and other people can assign their own numbers (and indeed, their own categorization). I placed Sisay and Darksteel higher than the rest because of their combo potential.
With these numbers, it becomes possible to compute how many wild cards would likely be equivalent to purchasing the Anthology bundle. Disregarding the difference between rare and mythic rare wild cards, this number would be the number of cards in category 1 multiplied by 4 and then added to the sum of the products of the pairs of numbers in category 2. This comes up to 18.9 cards. Given that the cost of the bundle is 3400 gems (or 20k gold), this would mean that buying the bundle is equivalent to valuing wild cards at about 180 gems each or 1058 gold each if you were paying the gold price (which by the way, does have a 3k gold tax compared to buying the bundle with gems). This valuation is still quite good, since analysis conducted by Frank Karsten valued Wild Cards at 2470 gold each. You may also customize this part of the process simply by considering how much you are willing to pay for a rare wild card. Even if I was to be very conservative and only claim that the 4 best cards that I selected matter, that would still give me a valuation of 213 gems or 1250 gold. Thus, taking everything else in the valuation into consideration, as long as I am willing to pay more than 1250 gold for a wild card, purchasing Historic Anthology 1 is better than using wild cards.
Valuation of Historic Anthology 2
Doing the same for Historic Anthology 2, I come up with the following:
Category 1 (Definitely strong cards that will see play as sets)
Meddling Mage
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
Pack Rat
Knight of Reliquary
Category 2 (Might see play in certain numbers)
Dragonmaster Outcast 1, 2
Platinum Angel 0.8, 2
Waste Not 0.2, 4
Maelstrom Pulse 1, 3
Ranger of Eos 0.5, 4
Terravore 0.05, 4
For Anthology 2, there were some cards, like Dragonmaster Outcast and Maelstrom pulse that I think will 100% see competitive play but not as 4 of’s. Thus I put them in category 2 but with probability 1 and copies less than 4. As with the first Anthology, I think that each card has a chance of getting played in the historic meta, although I seriously doubt Terravore would. If it does though, it would certainly be as a 4-of. Doing the same computation we get 25.6 cards or 21 cards if we only consider those with probability 1. Anthology 2 costs 4000 gems or 25k gold so the valuation would be [156 gems, 977 gold] when taking everything into consideration and [190 gems, 1191 gold] if being very conservative.
Conclusion
Based on the valuations conducted, the Historic Anthologies, as they are currently packaged, are considerably good buys for standard players looking to get into Historic in the future. If the economy stays the same, then it is recommended to pick these up if you have the gold or gems to spare. Of course, if you play standard, your priority should still be making sure that you have all the cards you need in standard (which in my opinion should be all the playable cards). However, several articles I’ve written in the past (completing sets through limited or constructed) seem to show that generating a huge trove of unused gold after already collecting all of the playables in standard is possible. In such a case, using that surplus gold or gems on Historic staples can save you a lot of wild cards should you decide that you want to dive into Historic later on.
May the shuffler be with you.
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