In a previous article, I discussed about rank decay and how
players aspiring to get to the top 1000 of the ranked ladder can optimize their
experience by knowing when they still need to play more games to maintain their
rank and when they can be confident that they are safe. In that article, I
introduced a spreadsheet that one can use for this purpose. In this one, I introduce
a slightly modified version of that tool and provide a manual for its use.Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZaDLf2cR_SpDm3NfwiMMrQDP9IyINCBbfx2SKTgSn48/edit?usp=sharing
I was told by some people who had tried the link before that it doesn’t work if you just edit the document online, you need to download the file. Also, the file contains data that I used for my own rank decay this season. You are free to erase that data and replace it with your own.
Disclaimer:
I do not make any guarantees regarding the results of the spreadsheet. The computations made are explained in one of the following sections. There is always variability involved and I have not put enough work to check if valid statistical inferences can be made (that would be a worthwhile project for the future though).
Interface
The only parts of the spreadsheet that you are supposed to put data in are the ones in yellow. I did not place any protections on the formulas so that others can be free to check my work so be careful since modification of the contents of cells other than those in yellow can cause problems to the rest of the tool.
You enter data under the following headings:
1.)
Column A: Days to end. This is the number of
days the MTGA client says is left +1. There is a +1 since when the client says 2
day left, it actually means less than 3 days left (72 hours). There is a slight
but conservative discrepancy in doing it this way because you then always
assume that there are x+1 days remaining instead of x days when the truth is
somewhere in between. You can fix this by entering the exact value if you can
figure out what that is but I never bothered.
2.)
Column C: Rank. Whenever you take a measurement,
you note your rank and enter it here. You also need to enter data for 3.) (discussed
next) each time you put in data for Rank.
3.)
Column J: Time and date. Enter time and date of
your measurement in the following sample format: 8/24/2019 9:35AM
Outputs
1.)
Column A: Days to end. After your initial input,
the rest of this column will be computed by the tool. It’s not very useful
since you can see the exact info from the client. As mentioned, there will be
some discrepancy between the client and the number computed here unless you put
in the exact number of days (correct to two decimals) in the first cell.
2.)
Column B: Days passed. This is just the
complement of Column A. The sum of the two is always the first value you
entered at the top of Column A. Ignore values to this when you have not yet entered
inputs for rank and date & time for a given row as it is meaningless until
such data is entered. The same is true for the other columns.
3.)
Column D: Hours passed since last measurement. This
is computed from the consecutive dates & times your have entered in Column
J.
4.)
Column E: Drop/Hr. This is the average decay per
hour experienced since you last entered data. In can be negative if your rank
actually improved (which happens sometimes, especially if your rank is in the
top 100).
5.)
Column F: Acceleration/Hr. This is the average change
in decay per hour experienced since you last entered data. If this is positive
then it means decay rate is increasing, if it is negative then it means decay slowed
down. Single values of this are not very useful beyond that description and you
cannot really draw conclusions from this number as it tends to be volatile
especially when it is still far from the end of the season.
6.)
Column H: Critical Rate. This is the rate (Drop/Hr)
that will get you kicked out of top 1000. If your Drop/Hr value (Column E) is
consistently (say in 3 measurements, spaced at least a few hours apart) greater
than or equal to the critical rate, then you are at risk of losing your spot
and will need to play (and win!) some more to keep it.
7.)
Column G: Hrs Before Critical Rate. This
considers how long, given constant acceleration, it will take for your current
rate to catch up to the critical rate. When this cell is shaded in red, it is
meaningless (either because your acceleration is negative or because you
already passed the critical rate). This column is used as a second check on how
safe you are. If the number here is lower than the time remaining in the
season, it means that even if you are safe based on Column H and Column E, your
Drop/Hr will eventually accelerate to the critical rate and there might be
enough time left to get you kicked out of top 1000. For example, say you are at
800th rank and there is 24 hours left. Your present drop rate is at 5
per hour which seems to mean that you should be safe and will end at
800+24*5=920. However, if your acceleration (Column G) has been measuring
positive numbers consistently, then it is likely that your decay will continue
to speed up from 5 per hour and you will not make top 1000.
8.)
Column I: Finish at current rate. This just
shows you what rank you will be under present conditions and assuming constant decay
rate. It is NOT useful since assuming that acceleration is zero is wrong.
However, in the last few (maybe 3 hours) of the season, acceleration tends to
be negative and so the value in this column would be conservative measures.
That is, if at 3 hours before this number is less than 1000 and you see that
Column F is giving you negative values, it is an indication that you are safe.
The plot
The accompanying plot just shows your rank decay as a function of time. It presents a visual output where you can see if your decay is linear or accelerating, and if there are sudden jumps.
Hopefully, this tool can be helpful to those who need to have some idea of whether or not they are safe for the season. Let me know your experience using it and if you have any suggestions for improving it.
May the shuffler be with you.
Update
I have modified the tool to accommodate for the change in qualification criterion from top 1000 to top 1200.
Another added feature of this version is the ending rank assuming average acceleration column. This is a better gauge of how safe your current spot is than just the ending rank at constant rate. This column averages out the acceleration across different data points and uses that as a constant rate of acceleration. Of course, this is far from perfect, but the idea is that the acceleration should converge to a reasonable constant rate of acceleration as you take more and more measurements.
Modified Tool Link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XzYgGwbiwGzR7naS6VOZVXyaz17Eo-yK3gmx1RvSVXk/edit?usp=sharing
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